FMD Capital Management

Posts Tagged: volatility

Contemplating Risk At All-Time Highs In Stocks

Written by David Fabian, May 29th, 2017

It’s easy to get sucked into the tunnel vision of an easy market.  Trends are strong, liquidity is abundant, credit markets are cheerful, and volatility is low.  This is when it becomes easy to get complacent.  To trick yourself into believing the recent past will extend indefinitely into the future.  It’s a mental trap that even the most tenured investors find themselves falling into over various cycles. Read more

Why You Shouldn’t Trade Volatility

Written by David Fabian, March 31st, 2017

One of the top stories on CNBC today is about a trader who is relentlessly buying VIX futures despite millions in realized losses.  No one can seem to figure out what the purpose of this play is other than the obvious lottery ticket event of a sharp jump in volatility in the S&P 500 Index.

I would normally read this type of article with the knowledge that this is probably a one-off kamikaze trader with more money than sense.  Maybe they are some massive hedge fund with a sophisticated trading algorithm or a family office that is hedging some other unforeseen risk. Read more

VIDEO: When Will Stock Market Volatility Return?

Written by David Fabian, March 07th, 2017

In this month’s video, I look at key trends developing in global stock and bond markets.  Chart review includes analysis of large-cap, small cap, emerging market, high yield, interest rates, and gold prices.  Observations of risk and reward are noted throughout with an emphasis on caution for new money at this phase of the rally in stocks.  Recorded on March 7, 2017.

A log of our previous videos are posted here.

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6 Things I Learned In 2016

Written by David Fabian, December 26th, 2016

Some would say (read: my wife) that I’m a creature of habit.  However, I think that having consistency with your investment routine creates a culture of success.  It allows you to continually act on what works and avoid straying from a predesigned plan of attack.

One of my habits is to write an annual review of the lessons I learned over the preceding twelve months.  The purpose is to impart both successes and missteps in a way that bolsters your own investment endeavors.  Many of these lessons are ones that I continue to re-learn or emphasize every single week. Read more

Life Is Good For Mortgage REIT ETFs

Written by David Fabian, December 03rd, 2016

Real estate stocks have taken a beating in recent months as rising interest rates derail the momentum of this beloved income sector.  Yet despite the dip in traditional housing and commercial REITs, one high yield segment of the market is still seeing surging prices.

Mortgage REITs (or mREITs) have largely ignored the trend in Treasury bonds and instead focused on the continued strength in overall credit conditions.  This has translated into new all-time highs for the small group of exchange-traded funds that track these investments. Read more