Active investors are continually looking for innovative ways to beat the market. They want to believe that some perfect combination of fundamental or technical indicators will lead to the holy grail of outperformance (otherwise known as alpha).
In the broadest sense, there are two ways to beat the market: on the upside or on the downside. You either take more risk or less than the benchmark. Read more
In this month’s video, I look at the overall trends in global stock markets with particular emphasis on the U.S. dollar impact. Chart review includes analysis of U.S. stocks, international stocks, interest rates, oil prices, and volatility. Observations of risk and reward are noted throughout, with an emphasis on trend following and sensible portfolio management strategies. Recorded on July 26, 2017.
High yield municipal bond income seems like a dream come true in today’s market. The ability to capture a 4%+ income stream with little taxable impact in a strongly trending credit environment is the ideal situation for many retirees. This is particularly true for investors who have more money stashed away in taxable trusts and brokerage portfolios than traditional retirement accounts. Read more
It’s easy to get sucked into the tunnel vision of an easy market. Trends are strong, liquidity is abundant, credit markets are cheerful, and volatility is low. This is when it becomes easy to get complacent. To trick yourself into believing the recent past will extend indefinitely into the future. It’s a mental trap that even the most tenured investors find themselves falling into over various cycles. Read more
One of the top stories on CNBC today is about a trader who is relentlessly buying VIX futures despite millions in realized losses. No one can seem to figure out what the purpose of this play is other than the obvious lottery ticket event of a sharp jump in volatility in the S&P 500 Index.
I would normally read this type of article with the knowledge that this is probably a one-off kamikaze trader with more money than sense. Maybe they are some massive hedge fund with a sophisticated trading algorithm or a family office that is hedging some other unforeseen risk. Read more