In this month’s video, I look at the overall trends in global stock markets with emphasis on the complacency and low volatility. Chart review includes analysis of U.S. stocks, international stocks, interest rates, U.S. dollar index, and volatility. Observations of risk and reward are noted throughout, with an emphasis on trend following and sensible portfolio management strategies. Recorded on September 24, 2017.
In this month’s video, I look at the overall trends in global stock markets with particular emphasis on the U.S. dollar impact. Chart review includes analysis of U.S. stocks, international stocks, interest rates, oil prices, and volatility. Observations of risk and reward are noted throughout, with an emphasis on trend following and sensible portfolio management strategies. Recorded on July 26, 2017.
The halfway point of 2017 is nearly upon us and as investors consider market dynamics, there is much to be both excited and worried about. The following are some of the most interesting charts on my radar right now and their implications for your portfolio.
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
In my opinion, no other major index can define the resilience of growth stocks better than the NASDAQ-100 over the last several years. This ebullient group of the 100 largest non-financial stocks on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange has now spent 137 trading days above its 50-day moving average. That’s a new all-time record according to Charlie Bilello of Pension Partners. Read more
One of the top stories on CNBC today is about a trader who is relentlessly buying VIX futures despite millions in realized losses. No one can seem to figure out what the purpose of this play is other than the obvious lottery ticket event of a sharp jump in volatility in the S&P 500 Index.
I would normally read this type of article with the knowledge that this is probably a one-off kamikaze trader with more money than sense. Maybe they are some massive hedge fund with a sophisticated trading algorithm or a family office that is hedging some other unforeseen risk. Read more
The stock market has been on a tremendous run since the February 2016 lows. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has now risen nearly 20% from that washout level and recently hit fresh all-time highs. Second quarter earnings have largely been well-received, economic data is solid, and the Fed doesn’t seem in a hurry to spoil the party. Read more