In this month’s video, I look at key trends developing in global stock and bond markets. Chart review includes analysis of large-cap, small cap, emerging market, high yield, interest rates, and gold prices. Observations of risk and reward are noted throughout with an emphasis on caution for new money at this phase of the rally in stocks. Recorded on March 7, 2017.
Retail stocks have become a highly-publicized area of the market in recent years as the continued struggle for brick and mortar relevance battle the efficiency of online sales. The trend has been exacerbated with the steady expansion of retail juggernaut Amazon Inc (AMZN) into more and more households. The strength of Amazon has unavoidably weighed on the share prices of more traditional retailers that find themselves strung with slowing sales and inescapable costs.
There is no doubt that consumerism is alive and well in the heart of the American economy. Which is why it’s worth considering if the pendulum of momentum will eventually swing back in the direction of numerous stalwart retail competitors.
Clients and readers often ask my opinion about an investment relative to its 200-day moving average. This trend line is one of the most common foundations of simple technical analysis.
In fact, the 200-day moving average has deep-rooted meaning to my family legacy. My grandfather Dick Fabian was one of the first investors to pioneer a trend following system based on this measurement. Read more
It feels like we have almost packed a full year’s worth of stock market price action into just the last two weeks. With so many diverging market sectors and overall fluctuations, I thought it would be prudent to do an examination of some key charts.
Taking a closer look at these categories can help frame macro views as well as determine areas of strength and weakness. Read more
The global political concern known as “Brexit” is making shockwaves through the investment community this week. This may ultimately be the most important event of the summer for the stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets. While the final outcome is far from certain, it goes without saying that savvy, long-term investors will look at the pronounced volatility as an opportunity rather than a calamity.
The immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote is to simply propagate the existing trends in gold, Treasury bonds, and defensive sectors such as utility stocks. These areas of the market have been the beneficiaries of fresh capital and surging prices all year long. Furthermore, it has compounded weakness in banking and financial stocks, which have struggled in the face of falling interest rates and structural headwinds.