In this month’s video, I look at the overall trends in global stock markets with emphasis on the complacency and low volatility. Chart review includes analysis of U.S. stocks, international stocks, interest rates, U.S. dollar index, and volatility. Observations of risk and reward are noted throughout, with an emphasis on trend following and sensible portfolio management strategies. Recorded on September 24, 2017.
The summer is rapidly closing and a new season will shortly be upon us. The seasonality of the markets this time of year has always been a tricky proposition as well. With that in mind, I’m going to outline my current thoughts on some of the big picture charts. Read more
The halfway point of 2017 is nearly upon us and as investors consider market dynamics, there is much to be both excited and worried about. The following are some of the most interesting charts on my radar right now and their implications for your portfolio.
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
In my opinion, no other major index can define the resilience of growth stocks better than the NASDAQ-100 over the last several years. This ebullient group of the 100 largest non-financial stocks on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange has now spent 137 trading days above its 50-day moving average. That’s a new all-time record according to Charlie Bilello of Pension Partners. Read more
In this month’s video, I look at the technical trends developing in growth versus value stocks. Chart review includes analysis of large-cap, small cap, international, Treasury bonds, and high yield bond ETF prices. Observations of risk and reward are noted throughout, with an emphasis on trend following and sensible portfolio management. Recorded on May 31, 2017.
Small cap stocks are often thought of as the growth engines of strong market cycles. Investment in these companies engenders the notion of higher risk and magnified price fluctuations compared to their larger peers. As a result, these stocks tend to have streaky performance that can experience periods of strong relative gains or lagging returns.
The latter characteristic is what many would use to describe the current price action of exchange-traded funds that track small cap stocks. These passive index funds have meaningfully underperformed traditional large-cap benchmarks as price patterns meander in a sideways trend.