Written by David Fabian, December 12th, 2013
This time of year is chock full of predictions designed to guide your investment decisions in 2014. There are forecasts for top performing stocks, the direction of interest rates, fiscal policy timing, commodity estimates, and many more. For every bull there is usually an equal and opposite bear that claims to be an expert on these topics. This bifurcation can lead to a confusing stream of conflicting messages that hinder your decision making process.
At the end of the day, forecasts are really just educated guesses based on past experiences or data that shape our future outlook. When you place too much confidence in these predictions, it can lead to steadfast conviction. That is when things turn dangerous for your wealth. Read more
Written by David Fabian, December 11th, 2013
The market has been decidedly weak so far in December and despite an upbeat jobs report, we are seeing a consolidation in prices across most of the major indices. This consolidation can be healthy given the height of the market and the incredible run that it has undergone since we began the year. However, it is also going to give some hope for the bears that we will see at least a short-lived sell off before we close the books on 2013.
With the percentage of bears near historical lows, it only makes sense that there are fewer buyers in the marketplace. When you add in the potential for tax loss selling and profit taking before year end, it starts to become easier to convince yourself that the top may be in. Read more
Written by Michael Fabian, December 11th, 2013
In our December memo to clients I discussed the changes that are continuing to unfold in the fixed income markets and how it pertains to the various bond holdings in our portfolios.
Although equity markets have continued to dominate financial media headlines in recent months with record setting performance achievements, I think it’s important that investors continue to review the fixed-income sleeve of their portfolio more frequently, so that the size and weight is in line with their expectations for total return, alongside any potential variables that lie ahead. Read more
Written by David Fabian, December 10th, 2013
Multi-asset ETFs have seen a great deal of inflows and momentum over the last several years. These ETFs run the gamut from portfolios with a broad mix of underlying securities to “fund of funds” that own a tight group of other diversified ETFs. The asset allocation can include stocks, bonds, commodities, and even alternative investments.
Retail investors and professional portfolio managers use them as core holdings in order to lower risk and achieve their asset allocation targets. This diversification can often times lead to lower volatility than all-stock or -bond portfolios. In addition, they are often used as benchmarks to gauge the success of a balanced mix of securities in relation to an established index.
Written by David Fabian, December 09th, 2013
The jittery bond market has been on edge for the last seven months as rising interest rates have put a lid on nearly every sector except floating rate notes and high yield. The threat of the Federal Reserve putting an end to its latest round of quantitative easing has pushed the 10 Year Treasury Note yield back above 2.8%. It’s yield is once again drifting towards the high of 3.0% that we witnessed back in September.
Read the entire article on Seeitmarket.com